Picture credit: Take a look at Google’s quantum computing technology – CNET

Thus, there are things that classical computers will have to do and things that quantum computing will have to do, so they will both coexist in the future.

While getting into more details of quantum computing is beyond the scope of this blog, here I wanted to very quickly introduce some key concepts before looking into their application. If you are interested in exploring more about quantum computing, please take a look at the references at the end.

Impact of Quantum computing on Legacy Control Systems

The advent of quantum computing will have profound impacts on legacy control systems in several areas. In this section, I especially look into the impact on the critical infrastructure in particular energy sector:

• Cybersecurity: Quantum computers can potentially break many of the cryptographic algorithms currently used to secure data. This poses a significant risk to legacy systems relying on these algorithms. The solution is to transition to quantum-resistant cryptographic methods.

• Data Processing: Quantum computers can process and analyse data much faster than classical computers. For control systems that handle large volumes of data, such as in the Smart Grid Management System quantum algorithms can help enhance the management of smart grids by processing vast amounts of data from sensors, smart meters, and IoT devices in real-time, leading to improved load balancing, demand forecasting, and real-time decision-making for energy distribution, leading to increased efficiency and reliability of the power grid. As part of Predictive Maintenance Application, quantum computing can be applied to analyse large datasets from equipment sensors to predict failures and maintenance needs, thereby preventing outages and costly repairs, extending the lifespan of equipment, and ensuring uninterrupted power supply.

• Optimization Problems: Quantum computing has the potential to solve complex optimization problems more efficiently than classical computers. This can benefit the electric industry, where optimization is key. For example, Power Flow Optimization which would essentially optimize power flow in transmission networks to minimize losses and improve efficiency. Supply and Demand Balancing where Quantum algorithms can be used to match energy supply with demand in real-time, considering factors like renewable energy sources, storage capacities, and consumption patterns leading to better integration of renewable energy sources, reduction of waste, and lower energy costs.

• Simulation and modeling: Quantum computers can simulate molecular and quantum mechanical systems more effectively than classical computers. One of the application could be in Grid Resilience Analysis by simulating and analysing grid behaviour under various stress scenarios, such as natural disasters or cyberattacks, thereby enhancing the ability to plan for and mitigate potential disruptions and ensuring a more resilient power grid. Renewable Energy Integration could be another potential application. Modeling complex interactions in a grid that includes high levels of renewable energy sources, which are variable and unpredictable, can assist in better understanding and management of renewable integration challenges, leading to more efficient use of green energy sources. Another potential application could be Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Networks, by simulating and optimizing the deployment and operation of EV charging stations, we can ensure efficient energy use and minimize impacts on the power grid.

• Upgrade and Compatibility Challenges: Integrating quantum computing capabilities into existing systems poses significant technical challenges. Legacy systems may need substantial upgrades or even complete redesigns to be compatible with quantum computing.

• Skill Gap: The quantum computing field requires a different set of skills and knowledge. There is a growing need for education and training in quantum computing to manage and operate these advanced systems.

Quantum Computing impact on Cybersecurity

Quantum computing’s potential to revolutionize various aspects of technology is particularly notable in the field of cybersecurity. Here are some key examples of how quantum computing can impact cybersecurity:

• Breaking Current Encryption Methods: Many of today’s encryption techniques, like RSA and ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography), rely on the difficulty of factoring large numbers or solving discrete logarithm problems, tasks that are computationally intensive for classical computers. However, quantum computers can solve these problems much more efficiently using algorithms like Shor’s algorithm, potentially rendering current encryption methods obsolete.

• Enhanced Cryptanalysis: Quantum computing could significantly advance cryptanalysis—the practice of deciphering encrypted communications without the key. This advancement could enable the decryption of historically encrypted messages or data that was considered secure under classical computation standards.

• Quantum Key Distribution (QKD): On the positive side, quantum computing introduces new methods of secure communication, such as QKD. QKD uses quantum mechanics to securely distribute encryption keys, with the advantage that any attempt to eavesdrop on the key distribution can be detected, thanks to the principles of quantum mechanics.

• Threat to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies: Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin rely heavily on cryptographic algorithms for securing transactions and mining processes. Quantum computing poses a significant threat to these systems as it can potentially break the cryptographic safeguards that protect wallets and transaction ledgers.

• Increased Hacking Capabilities: State-sponsored and highly sophisticated hackers could use quantum computers to breach current security systems, accessing confidential data, disrupting critical infrastructure, and impacting national security.

• Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC): In response to these threats, there is a growing focus on developing PQC algorithms designed to be secure against both quantum and classical computers. The transition to PQC will be crucial for maintaining cybersecurity in the quantum era.

• Retroactive Decryption Risk: Encrypted data that is safe today against classical computers could be at risk in the future. If sensitive data is recorded now, it could potentially be decrypted by quantum computers in the coming years, posing a long-term data confidentiality risk. This is also infamously called “Harvest Now Decrypt Later” attack.

• Secure Communication Channels: Quantum computing could impact secure communication channels like VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) and secure browsing protocols, necessitating a revaluation and redesign of these technologies to ensure continued confidentiality and integrity of data.

Case study – Exploitation of Cryptographic Vulnerabilities

Modern-day cryptography relies heavily on the computational difficulty of certain mathematical problems. For instance, RSA encryption is based on the challenge of factoring large numbers, and ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography) depends on the difficulty of the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem. Classical computers, even the most powerful ones, require an impractical amount of time to solve these problems, which is why these encryption methods are considered secure today (when RSA first came out, the computing time required to break an RSA private key was in the order of billions of years of continuous computing time).

Quantum computing changes this landscape dramatically. A quantum computer can solve these problems much more efficiently than classical computers. The most famous example is Shor’s algorithm, developed by mathematician Peter Shor in 1994. This algorithm allows a quantum computer to factor large numbers and compute discrete logarithms in polynomial time, which could break RSA and ECC encryption schemes.

The practical implications of this are profound:

• Decryption of Encrypted Data: An attacker with access to a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could potentially decrypt data that was previously considered secure. This includes historical data that has been encrypted and stored.

• Man-in-the-Middle Attacks: A quantum-enabled attacker could intercept and decrypt secure communications, which rely on these encryption techniques.

• Digital Signature Forgery: Quantum computing could also compromise digital signatures, undermining the integrity and non-repudiation of digital communications and transactions.

How to address the Threat

Various organizations around the world are working hard to address the threat from Quantum computing. Researchers over the past several years have identified a Quantum-Safe encryption. According to the magazine The American Scientist, NIST has already identified 69 possible encryptions the agency calls “Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC).” NIST is also planning to release Post-Quantum Cryptography Standard by 2024.

Post Quantum Cryptography (PQC) is essentially a classical solution; although there is quantum in the title, there is no quantum in the solution. In order to be quantum-resilient, classical computing devices may use PQC in the future.

Then there is quantum cryptography, which is essentially a technique based on quantum systems, leveraging them for random number generators or quantum key distribution.

Both of these methods have different infrastructure requirements, and both have their own methods of being quantum resilient.

Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) is another promising project that the industry has been trying to fine-tune. QKD employs the properties of quantum physics to securely transfer a quantum key between two endpoints. In the early stages of the project, fibre optic cable was the only means by which the key could be transmitted. However, a second method was developed by the Chicago based company Quantum Xchange that can transfer the key over the internet.

NIST has identified a seven-step process for organizations to prepare for post-quantum cryptography. There is a lot of emphasis on quantum hygiene, which starts by getting an inventory of the cryptography that the organization has on their system. What type of data is being held, how valuable it is, and what is that data connected to? Start to prioritize and create a transition plan. The organizations can increase the key length in the existing encryption that they are using; by doing so, they would not be quantum secure, but this would improve their cyber hygiene for quantum readiness.